Journal your trades. Simulate every prop firm.
Know which challenges you can actually pass.
The full toolkit for long-term prop firm traders. Log real trades in the built-in journal, let it compute your true edge, then simulate any firm's ruleset with your numbers — and see which challenges are worth buying before you pay for one more.
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Journal every trade — win rate, avg win/loss, trades per day and Sharpe are computed for you.
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Simulate any prop firm's full ruleset with your real numbers pushed straight in with one click.
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See which challenges you can actually pass — and, across 50–200 attempts, whether you beat the firm or just fund it.
Another failed challenge: hundreds of dollars.
Knowing before you pay: $49.
Cancel anytime · No long-term commitment · Works in any browser
Need 5 days where daily profit clears the bar below:
Your journal decides which challenges you can pass.
Long-term prop firm trading isn't one lucky pass — it's a loop. Log every real trade, let the journal measure your true edge, then simulate that edge against any firm's ruleset. One click sends your live win rate, avg win/loss and trades per day into the simulator, so every pass probability is grounded in your numbers.
| Date | Asset | Result | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | NQ | +$1,240 | +$8,420 |
| 2026-07-11 | ES | -$820 | +$7,180 |
| 2026-07-10 | NQ | +$950 | +$8,000 |
| 2026-07-09 | EURUSD | +$610 | +$7,050 |
From real trades to real pass probability.
- 1Log every trade. Date, asset, P&L, notes. Takes 10 seconds.
- 2See your true edge. Win rate, avg win/loss, trades/day, profit factor, expectancy, Sharpe and full equity curve — computed live.
- 3Push to the simulator. One click sends your real numbers into the challenge simulator. No more guessed inputs.
- 4Know before you pay. Real pass probability, real EV over 50–200 challenges — against any firm's ruleset.
One pass tells you nothing. A hundred passes tells you everything.
Anyone can get lucky once. The only question that matters is what happens when you do this 50, 100, 200 times — and that's the question no single challenge can ever answer for you. This can.
Four answers you've never had — until now.
Your true pass rate against every rule the eval enforces — trailing drawdown, daily loss, consistency, whether your challenge has one phase or two. Not a rough guess. The real number.
Passing is not paying. See how often a funded account actually clears every payout gate and releases real cash — the step almost every other calculator ignores.
Set the buffer you've earmarked for eval fees and see your long-term risk of ruin — the odds you burn through it before a payout ever lands. The card flips green, amber or red so you spot danger before it costs you.
Run it 5, 50, 200 times. Every fee subtracted, every payout banked. The single number that tells you whether you're building income — or quietly bankrolling someone else's business.
Your real pass probability — and your real chance of getting paid.
A stochastic prop firm simulator that models trailing drawdown, daily loss and consistency rules — whether your challenge has one phase or two — then keeps going through the funded account, where most traders quietly lose the money they thought they'd won.
- Trailing drawdown, tracked trade by trade
- The funded payout stage, not just the pass
- Daily loss and consistency rules on every check
- Works whether your challenge has one phase or two
- Your true profit after every eval fee
- Best-case, worst-case and median outcomes
Three steps to the truth.
Your win rate, average win and average loss, and trades per day. Four numbers that drive everything.
Account size, profit target, drawdown, daily loss, consistency, min days. Got a second phase? Toggle it on. Then set the funded-account stage. Any firm, any setup.
We replay your strategy 5 to 200 times and compound the math — every fee subtracted, every payout banked — so the answer is never down to luck.
What you can model — and why each input matters.
Three groups: your strategy, the challenge ruleset, and the funded-account stage. Toggle anything off your firm doesn't enforce.
Four inputs
Measured over at least 100 real trades. Garbage in, garbage out.
- Win rate
- % of trades that close in profit. Drives the binomial backbone of the simulation.
- Avg win / avg loss (% of acct)
- Per-trade payoff as a fraction of starting balance — not R-multiple. R hides daily-loss exposure.
- Trades per day
- More trades per day = more daily-loss exposure even if your edge is positive.
Phase 1 + optional Phase 2
Every gate a prop firm enforces, modelled trade-by-trade.
- Account size & profit target
- The balance you trade and the % gain needed to advance.
- Max drawdown — static or trailing
- Trailing DD ratchets up with peak equity. Modelled correctly per trade — the #1 reason free calculators are wrong.
- Daily loss limit
- Caps intraday drawdown from the previous day's peak. Can bust you before max DD does.
- Consistency rule
- Single-day P&L cap as a % of total profit. Most free tools silently ignore this.
- Min trading days & max days
- Floor and ceiling on the evaluation window.
- One phase or two
- The tool works whether your challenge has one phase or two. Toggle on a second phase to give it its own target, drawdown, daily loss, consistency and trailing-DD switch.
Payout simulation
Passing isn't paying. This stage tells you how often funded accounts actually withdraw.
- Long-term risk of ruin
- Optional toggle. Set your total bankroll and see the odds you burn through it across many challenges — the card turns green, amber or red so you spot danger instantly.
- Min profit buffer
- Total profit required before any withdrawal is released.
- Min profitable days
- N days where daily profit clears a bar — a common payout gate.
- Trailing DD on funded
- Many firms keep the trailing rule on funded accounts. Toggle to match yours.
- Eval cost & profit split
- Folds into break-even withdrawal and expected profit per challenge.
- Avg withdrawal & payout %
- Sliders override the simulated payout rate so you can stress-test conservative assumptions.
Every output a serious trader needs
Probability of passing the challenge · Probability of being funded · Probability of getting a withdrawal · Long-term risk of ruin on your bankroll (color-coded green / amber / red) · Expected value per challenge · Expected equity across 5 to 200 challenges · Net long-run P&L after all eval fees · Break-even withdrawal · Equity-curve fan chart showing your average outcome plus best, median and worst-case paths · Dual failure breakdowns (challenge + funded) · Sensitivity to payout rate, average withdrawal and number of attempts
$49 to find out if the next challenge is even worth buying.
A losing strategy run 100 times costs thousands in fees. $49 buys you the answer before you spend another cent.
or $500/year — save $88 (1.8 months free)
Everything you need to evaluate any prop firm challenge.
- Unlimited 10,000-run simulations
- Challenges with one phase or two
- Full funded-account stage simulation
- Joint probability of getting a withdrawal
- Dual failure breakdowns (challenge + funded)
- Expected profit per challenge + break-even WD
- Sample equity curves over N challenges
- Live payout sliders & sensitivity
Questions, answered.
Why simulate 100+ challenges instead of just one?+
Because one challenge is a coin flip with an expensive entry fee. A 28% probability of getting paid feels survivable in isolation — but run 100 of those attempts and the eval fees compound faster than the payouts for most strategies. Long-run expected value is the only number that tells you whether to keep playing.
What's the difference between 'pass probability' and long-run EV?+
Pass probability is one event. Long-run EV multiplies your per-challenge expected profit by N attempts — every fee subtracted, every payout banked, every blow-up between them. A strategy can have a 47% pass rate and still bleed money over 100 challenges if the average payout doesn't cover the fees on the 53% that fail.
How is pass probability calculated?+
10,000 attempts, each played trade-by-trade against the firm's exact ruleset — drawdown (static or trailing), daily loss, consistency, min days, profit target — whether your challenge has one phase or two.
How is this different from free calculators?+
Free tools treat drawdown as static, skip the consistency rule, and stop the moment you 'pass'. We model trailing DD trade-by-trade, apply consistency on every payout check, and simulate the funded stage to its actual payout — the only number that determines whether challenges are worth buying.
Does it work for every prop firm?+
Yes. Every rule is configurable — account size, profit target, static or trailing drawdown, daily loss, consistency, min days — whether your challenge has one phase or two, plus the funded-stage buffer, profitable-day requirements and trailing-DD-on-funded. If the firm publishes the rules, you can model them.
What does 'expected profit per challenge' tell me?+
Eval cost subtracted from (joint probability × average withdrawal). Positive means the strategy compounds over the long run. Negative means every attempt has negative expected value — running it 100 times multiplies the loss, it doesn't fix it.
Does the tool ever say a strategy is profitable?+
Sometimes — when the math actually works. But for many configurations the honest answer is negative EV, and showing that clearly is the point. We'd rather you not pay thousands in fees to discover what $49 of simulation could have told you in a minute.
What do P25, P50 and P75 mean on the equity curve?+
Picture running your strategy hundreds of times. P50 — the median — is the middle outcome: half the runs do better, half do worse, so it's your typical result. P25 is the unlucky quarter (three out of four runs beat it). P75 is the lucky quarter (only one in four runs beats it). Showing all three gives you the realistic range between a bad run and a good run — not a single number that pretends luck doesn't exist.
What does "expected value" actually mean?+
It's your average result if you ran the same challenge over and over. Positive expected value means that, across many attempts, you come out ahead. Negative means that on average you lose money — no matter how good one lucky pass might look. It's the number that tells you whether the math is on your side or the prop firm's.
Why show a range of outcomes instead of one number?+
Because a single challenge is luck. Anyone can win once. The range — your average, plus the best, median and worst-case paths across many challenges — is the only honest way to see whether your strategy actually makes money over time, or just occasionally gets lucky before the fees catch up.
Can I cancel?+
Yes, anytime from your dashboard. Access continues until the end of your billing period.
Popular firms
See all firms →Every major prop firm's ruleset with simulated pass rate and joint withdrawal probability. Independent — no affiliate links.
Guides
The math, the rules, and the honest numbers behind prop firm challenges.
- Prop firm statistics 2026 — pass rates & payout data
- What percentage of traders pass prop firm challenges?
- Trailing drawdown explained
- How to pass a prop firm challenge
- Consistency rule explained
- One-phase vs two-phase challenges
- Why most funded traders never get paid
- How much do prop firm traders make?
- Are prop firms a scam?
- Personal account vs prop firm
- $50k vs $100k vs $200k challenge
- What win rate do you need to pass?
- Prop firm trading journal
Stop guessing. Run the numbers.
Your real chance of getting paid, across any number of challenges — in under a minute.
Run my first simulation